NFL · resolved market
NFL Sunday Week 9: Will an underdog win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb009d1b1ee6645786d3cd912fe7e5faf644d132c037035c8377f6ea600122c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.99 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked No | 57c | 681$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.35 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 69c | 658.1$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed No | 57c | 503.57$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2a…4ab7backed No | 57c | 396.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes | 67c | 350$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked No | 61c | 82.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 41c | 79.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…ee34backed Yes | 51c | 75.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 50c | 68.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…8223backed Yes | 60c | 41.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…01e9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba59…a430backed Yes | 77c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.