Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb4d9c2320cc7460806dc846255c45286fd8ebbe44a5f98e5a855b2f0a29891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 697.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 502.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.97 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 411.74$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.35 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 10c | 232.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 175.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 149.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 29c | 134.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 127.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 13c | 115.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 108.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 25c | 101.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…12a8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 97.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 93.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 81.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 21c | 76.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 70.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 15c | 70.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 69.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 68.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…1627backed Yes | 44c | 64.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 22c | 64.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…7fc6backed No | 80c | 62.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 43c | 59.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 54.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 47c | 51.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 33.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…8188backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 36c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 80c | 24.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 21.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 68c | 19.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 79c | 18.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 79c | 13.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 77°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.