Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b2368441cf08333f66a9789649a48064e8be97b5e7c9a69a0082be460c7f5ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 546.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 511.32$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 270.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 52c | 196.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 194.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 174.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 150.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 144.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 140.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 126.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 57c | 117.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 111.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 17c | 92.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 92.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 84.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 82.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 23c | 81.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 17c | 80.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 80.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 74.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 19c | 71.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 67.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 64.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 62.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 78c | 62.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 59.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 39c | 56.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 77c | 54.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 59c | 52.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…fadbbacked Yes | 28c | 50.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 30c | 36.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 72c | 33.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 44c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 77c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 70c | 25.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 18.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked No | 57c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 71c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 77°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.