NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bbadf69e3daf49b390a5cab616d2de7dbba62dce86858288e9dad17aaceb775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d3…8478backed Over | 47c | 21,500$10,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,395 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…7b18backed Under | 53c | 18,800$9,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,964 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 52c | 16,833$8,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,753.2 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 11,049$5,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,671.77 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 53c | 6,207$3,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,289.68 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 5,233$2,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,595.6 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…b1aebacked Over | 48c | 3,851$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 3,256$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.62 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 47c | 2,815$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.82 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Under | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 2,511$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.92 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,898$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.84 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 1,313$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.64 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.01 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 51c | 716$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.16 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Over | 48c | 676.08$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 50c | 502.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.2 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 55c | 421.8$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 400$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.86 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Under | 52c | 261.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 51c | 255$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 204.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 198.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 194.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 52c | 192.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 191.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 51c | 185.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 170.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 50c | 141.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 48c | 131.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Over | 47c | 121.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 117.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Over | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9f…a82fbacked Over | 47c | 60.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 34.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…657ebacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Under | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7b48backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 69c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresSabres won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.