South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8be8e776a39039478726b38a9358e8b6261a8343c18a38e79454b4a41a6a27a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,676 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,842$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.85 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 783 | 51%399 W · 384 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 39c | 318.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Yes | 58c | 312.43$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 41c | 243.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 29c | 204.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 167.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 13c | 140.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 67c | 140.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 57c | 116.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,466 | 56.8%833 W · 633 L | +56.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 259 | 25.1%65 W · 194 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 38c | 81.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 68.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,393 | 52.6%733 W · 660 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 34c | 67.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 36c | 62.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 58c | 60.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 31c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 36c | 35.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1,339 | 56.9%762 W · 577 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 56c | 34.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 679 | 48.2%327 W · 352 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,442 | 51.9%748 W · 694 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…313fbacked Yes | 68c | 29.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked Yes | 44c | 22.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked No | 48c | 21.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 56c | 21.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 216 | 59.7%129 W · 87 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…20c8backed Yes | 69c | 18.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 79c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-05?this page
- Will CA Juventud vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Juventud win on 2026-03-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.