Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0f3f8b5946f7cd93ac233418462b0ee0fb78beb507e19e15e57d7e29632120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Natus Vincere, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97b9…5206backed Pipsqueak+4 | 13c | 1,703$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +292.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 1,190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.38 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 1,016$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.98 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 641.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 570.81$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.4 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 519.75$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.49 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 516.67$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.67 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 469.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 409$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.48 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 243.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.87 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 130.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 65.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 57.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 57.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 54.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…9c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.