Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c4c135fc7079a6283b33c41316a5a288e1f0eef98705c9edceee5634568aae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 5,353$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.38 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 4,946$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.46 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 19c | 1,999$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.79 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 1,994$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.48 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 1,647$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.37 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,043$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.95 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…e1b2backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 1,029$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 1,018$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.23 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Pipsqueak+4 | 21c | 994.81$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 825.4$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.65 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…8ebcbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 805$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 803.16$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 800$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 739.06$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.44 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 718.99$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 700$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 687.09$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 657.13$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.11 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 621.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 607$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 579.55$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 529.58$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…7a11backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 498.21$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 480.86$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 416.67$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 10c | 371.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 22c | 322.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 321$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 268.87$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 261.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…9d6dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 251.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Pipsqueak+4 | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…94c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 248.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…45aebacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 222$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 192.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 166.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 165.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 156.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…e53bbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 152$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 151.94$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…533cbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 122.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 101.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Pipsqueak+4 | 15c | 97.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 88.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…7a4bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 85.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 79.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…5db1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 65.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 64.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…906fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 61.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…e774backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 59.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…3ec9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…9c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 48.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 42.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 41.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 33.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 29.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…d755backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…eda5backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.