Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c2821e9f6f41ffe079cc48094461033536d0a93e876f0f34cb79a4d6c75f6fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 570.23$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.22 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 54c | 399.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.99 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 43c | 357.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 6c | 310.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 55c | 270.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 45c | 219.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…42f5backed Under | 54c | 210.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 32c | 201.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 45c | 195.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 55c | 170.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 153.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Over | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 43c | 102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 98.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 31c | 97.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 58.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 46c | 45.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 54c | 35.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Over | 44c | 24.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 54c | 20.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.