Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4168208d6b36bd152c32d43e26367a89b3301d47d8c7f9eaa491f11d59f67c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,584 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 634.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 559.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 364$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 292.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 277.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 184.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 178.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 128.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 115.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 109.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 90.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…076abacked Yes | 27c | 85.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 65.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 61.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 78c | 60.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 54.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 48.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 34.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 79c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 80c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…547ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.