TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,305 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes10c484.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c394.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.546,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No60c385.04$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c311.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes36c269.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2959818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes5c241.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes69c224.94$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes23c220.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9c…7e2fbacked No70c219.02$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.011968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7511533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c178.23$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.154,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes19c173.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3518255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes9c165.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa322…dd03backed Yes30c154.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7270…076abacked Yes53c150.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c144.59$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c138.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.037,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c128.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.981,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes46c124.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1221641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c123.81$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.021,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No46c102.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.685375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc40a…aa48backed No65c101.71$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.331553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes65c101.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.332444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed Yes76c97.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No62c91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.583,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c87.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes47c82.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3942438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c79.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.523,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2018…640abacked Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes65c75.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491752.9%9 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes43c73.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.351526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes37c73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No45c72.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1953925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes69c72.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No48c72.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7913531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No74c71.09$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2929056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes42c70.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No44c67.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.66934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Yes74c67.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No32c66.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes33c61.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c61.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.31,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.427540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No63c58.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.871,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes43c58.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes20c56.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes66c56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.849547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7908…4f35backed Yes45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25339.1%3 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-3.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes55c54.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes43c53.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00cc…f3e5backed Yes28c52.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0669…6a16backed Yes30c49.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes62c48.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c45.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes66c45.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No28c45.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.579341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No67c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6454143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No30c42.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.667233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc279…7023backed No58c41.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.461936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3064…641abacked Yes76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No35c39.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.183554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes44c38.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2321440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c37.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes30c37.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.272015%3 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c37.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.525,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56b…06b7backed No71c35.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.174522.2%10 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6734…0439backed Yes32c35.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c34.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.972,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed No37c34.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.95431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes32c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes34c32.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114223.8%10 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes51c30.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6616634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No76c30.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.512223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb957…b8acbacked Yes53c28.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.251668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No47c28.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No54c27.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5744147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0d6…e222backed No58c27.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-32.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3bf6…87f6backed Yes42c25.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.259055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No67c24.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0528648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…41dfbacked No70c23.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.964344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.96357.1%36 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes55c19.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c19.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.313,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No66c18.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed No60c16.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.722740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.