Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9065ac494cefc88068aabacff9d8a99c6eb000ae21071213f04b0b4c62009e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,310 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 61c | 716.02$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 7c | 529.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 392.54$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 299.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 258.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 255.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 207.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 77c | 193.22$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 187.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 186$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 78c | 173.01$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 75c | 152$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 125.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 77c | 109.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 14c | 96.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 95.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…de5abacked Yes | 26c | 95.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 85.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 85.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 84.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 82.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 29c | 82.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 16c | 82.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 79c | 80.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 15c | 80.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes | 57c | 70.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 23c | 70.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 70.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 67.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aae…d51dbacked Yes | 16c | 66.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +55%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 17c | 64.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 30c | 62.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 61.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…7023backed Yes | 43c | 56.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 55.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked No | 21c | 51.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Yes | 72c | 49.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 49.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 24c | 46.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 42.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 39.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 34.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 33.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 48c | 31.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…b46cbacked No | 53c | 28.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 53c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…c010backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 17.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 16.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 15.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 77c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.