Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c527a03f595e33aa5c569d176641e3e70f98eaaa9385c8eec2e90c6ac5c42e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed No | 70c | 18,299$12,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 6,665$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.67 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 5,638$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.36 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 69c | 5,510$3,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 4,063$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,924$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 2,325$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.56 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 1,493$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.87 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 1,033$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 31c | 735.86$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.48 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 22c | 536.78$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…a324backed Yes | 34c | 484$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 32c | 455.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 18c | 446$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…bb01backed Yes | 24c | 415.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…c39bbacked Yes | 6c | 403.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 30c | 390.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 30c | 383.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…0d10backed Yes | 17c | 333.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 3c | 329.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 34c | 294.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 18c | 238.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 71c | 230.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…a91ebacked Yes | 31c | 200.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 30c | 197.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 33c | 196.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 6c | 179.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 31c | 132.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Yes | 35c | 131.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…a8b5backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a1…a9afbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 30c | 53.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…8906backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yes | 32c | 42.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 34c | 37.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad1…f3a6backed Yes | 30c | 36.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…15e9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…57c2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 29.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.