Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7f4a7138609980272922c3a14211019bd3edf9725eff7061826195febe9f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SaD Esportsof Shopify Rebellion Gold, SaD Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3522…188fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 14,683$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x650c…7c8bbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 670$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 660.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 597.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -6.8wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 567.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…6d74backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 9c | 456.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 255 | 55.7%142 W · 113 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…6a6fbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 29c | 448.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b36…b82ebacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 438.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 13c | 345.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 12c | 343.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…3de2backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 247.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 14c | 241.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,748 | 46.2%808 W · 940 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…0af1backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 9c | 211$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 12c | 203.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 11c | 196.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 8c | 196.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 238 | 34%81 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 21c | 194.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 15c | 193.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -19.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe282…d125backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 189.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Shopify Rebellion Gold | 9c | 159.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…b2c9backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 153$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…d1c0backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 15c | 110.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,001 | 45.9%459 W · 542 L | -28.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 13c | 101.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…b8c7backed Shopify Rebellion Gold | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed SaD Esports | 65c | 75.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked SaD Esports | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed SaD Esports | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked SaD Esports | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed SaD Esports | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagethis page
- Map Handicap: SaD (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (+1.5)SaD Esports won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs SaD Esports - Map 1 WinnerSaD Esports won
- Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs SaD Esports - Map 2 WinnerSaD Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.