Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c8a9dfec1523c0bfaf2560d5b3ec6e37c50e7f487f401c54ad5f05f52db84e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 4c | 1,902$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 60c | 1,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.58 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 1,239$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.94 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 31c | 929.97$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.27 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 78c | 833.68$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 42c | 610.11$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.33 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 68c | 542.64$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 23c | 416.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 14c | 407.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 36c | 315$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 27c | 257.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 37c | 249.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 236.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.49 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked No | 61c | 230$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 46c | 220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 19c | 97.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…5406backed Yes | 75c | 83.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 19c | 76.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 23c | 61.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…f71abacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…6e9cbacked No | 77c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…ba9fbacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…5d3abacked Yes | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…41c1backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9a…8509backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…9213backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…e16abacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530b…2d99backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.