Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c90a8f53cf2eab29cdd9cd90ee3acb28acf0314671fae5c32f8d4e47e226675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Over | 47c | 9,999$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 7,730$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 4,006$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 50c | 2,007$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 2,004$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.64 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,750$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 1,473$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.59 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 55c | 988.19$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.45 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 948.74$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 53c | 900.1$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 21c | 857.53$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.08 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 37c | 699.59$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 58c | 685.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 566.44$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…20bbbacked Over | 55c | 531.26$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 48c | 392.37$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 68c | 368.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 53c | 283.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 56c | 267.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…d60ebacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 46c | 179.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 44c | 165.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 24c | 126.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 110.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 46c | 104.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 52c | 96.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650e…9147backed Over | 54c | 91.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 37c | 89.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 52c | 73.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…5dfcbacked Over | 69c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 50c | 72.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…5802backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 42c | 67.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 36c | 64.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 46c | 59.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 68c | 44.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…91d6backed Over | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 48c | 32.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…1809backed Under | 40c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 53c | 30.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…12bdbacked Under | 64c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…c5e1backed Over | 53c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86dc…2570backed Over | 53c | 24.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 45c | 22.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Under | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…0ab3backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.