Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb9dc965e8193ca42a5ceb372b269a3cb8a49dec16582be22bf4288d2664a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,675$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 79c | 2,540$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.4 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 1,718$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 1,133$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 61c | 1,017$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.49 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 800$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 784.53$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.78 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 733.39$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 74c | 250.29$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 67c | 216.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 159.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 143.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 26c | 97.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 26c | 95.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4f…75f2backed Over | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 74.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…0ab3backed Over | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 69.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 68c | 36.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Over | 79c | 21.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 69cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 77c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 63c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…c898backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.