Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c91784d109c95bfa97a6bf5be51bc7e4ba8c0643e2c2eb313d7f38af0505c86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 400.35$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 356.72$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 251.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 168.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 46c | 148.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 119.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 56c | 89.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 12c | 89.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 45c | 86.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 83.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 58c | 75.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 50c | 68.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 64.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 59.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 44c | 49.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 46.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 44c | 46.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 42.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 41.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…67cebacked Yes | 39c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 29.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 56c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed No | 58c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 63c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 58c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 14.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.