Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccb85fa93d2dc243a6369a87e7cba0e187fa6bf5f30be5edeb2aae123dcf5d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Gea, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44fc…7961backed Gea | 37c | 2,902$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…9cbdbacked Mannarino | 63c | 2,902$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Gea | 63c | 359.43$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.87 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 46c | 260.76$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Gea | 53c | 206.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Mannarino | 61c | 169.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 386 | 52.3%202 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed Mannarino | 68c | 163.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Gea | 48c | 124.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Gea | 35c | 106.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…8641backed Mannarino | 65c | 81.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gea | 32c | 72.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe575…8b12backed Gea | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Mannarino | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 311 | 53.1%165 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Gea | 41c | 62.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Gea | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Mannarino | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Gea | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mannarino | 62c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Mannarino | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…2cb3backed Mannarino | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…b3cdbacked Mannarino | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)this page
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Open Sud de France: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur GeaMannarino won
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs GeaGea won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.