Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Gea
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66085cedc4357fc0ff1de93b0c47cac5d91d6ea9d3e664557e6284e33aa991c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Geaof Mannarino, Gea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mannarino | 30c | 626.11$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Mannarino | 49c | 508.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Gea | 65c | 318.5$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Gea | 50c | 296.48$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.24 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 12c | 247.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gea | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Mannarino | 60c | 156$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Gea | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Gea | 75c | 133.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Mannarino | 31c | 94.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gea | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…ffdbbacked Gea | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Geathis page
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Gea: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Open Sud de France: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur GeaMannarino won
- Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Mannarino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.