Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d13580ce2f9642a5ef1fb774cd50e7c967e28e2d2b3c141cd880a2f5c3278ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 4,855$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.5 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 8c | 4,256$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.87 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 2,673$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 9c | 2,458$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 25c | 1,558$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.92 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 1,448$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.09 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 76c | 1,220$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.01 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 989.72$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.43 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 20c | 527.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 374.87$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 161.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 150.32$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 18c | 149.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 13c | 119.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 78c | 100.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 15c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 25c | 95.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Yes | 25c | 47.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…262ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 74c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 76c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked No | 77c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.