Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69bdbc7587f8e84d2a153f54f00f83317a171c7994959f4888441ac9d668c4dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Yes | 43c | 6,666$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 2,961$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.94 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 2,517$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 11c | 2,324$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…4b60backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 70c | 1,904$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.63 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 3c | 1,775$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 78c | 1,730$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.43 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 63c | 1,515$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.34 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 55c | 1,416$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.33 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,289$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…16b9backed Yes | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked No | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 29c | 966$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.49 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed No | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 43c | 599.98$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 53c | 501.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.78 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 5c | 478.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 449.57$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…dcf1backed No | 56c | 367.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 354$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 5c | 349.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 314.21$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 259.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 79c | 208$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 53c | 204.64$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 68c | 174.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 173$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Yes | 44c | 167.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 44c | 139.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked No | 80c | 128.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 79c | 119$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 57c | 111.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 17c | 100.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 29c | 90.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…e738backed Yes | 22c | 89.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 47c | 78.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 77c | 77.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 48c | 64.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 74c | 57.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 46c | 55.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 52c | 51.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 51c | 43.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 49c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 49c | 35.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Yes | 45c | 33.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Yes | 45c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Yes | 44c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 51c | 30.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 67c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 57c | 24.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…a901backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…77babacked No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.