CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d1522ac00c43733db6f7f53ecd0e86809a9a35900989b45e29eb52efd3adc8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof Donstu Esports, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Donstu Esports | 29c | 868.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Donstu Esports | 22c | 703.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked G2 Ares | 79c | 669$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Donstu Esports | 19c | 575.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked G2 Ares | 67c | 494.82$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed G2 Ares | 63c | 350.7$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Donstu Esports | 26c | 326$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 215 | 28.8%62 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Donstu Esports | 18c | 297.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Donstu Esports | 7c | 251.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed G2 Ares | 79c | 224.62$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Donstu Esports | 29c | 215.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Donstu Esports | 21c | 210.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Donstu Esports | 17c | 206.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Donstu Esports | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,041 | 39.9%415 W · 626 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed G2 Ares | 77c | 169.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed G2 Ares | 63c | 146.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…5bb2backed Donstu Esports | 30c | 145.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb3…f4f6backed G2 Ares | 67c | 131.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Donstu Esports | 13c | 127.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked Donstu Esports | 44c | 93.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Donstu Esports | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed G2 Ares | 60c | 89.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Donstu Esports | 44c | 59.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Donstu Esports | 24c | 58.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked G2 Ares | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Donstu Esports | 22c | 51.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Donstu Esports | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Donstu Esports | 47c | 49.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed G2 Ares | 77c | 48.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked G2 Ares | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Donstu Esports | 28c | 41.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked G2 Ares | 53c | 40.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Donstu Esports | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed G2 Ares | 56c | 29.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked G2 Ares | 74c | 27.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked G2 Ares | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…da1abacked G2 Ares | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.