MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d16d82e3269f379f9cefea59c9a7293a08eeeda109b0b9f80c784940888dc70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa75e…96ebbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 8,175$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 5,100$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 3,795$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 2,947$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.1 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 2,186$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,228$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 1,222$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.94 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 1,000$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 806.18$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.4 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 582.1$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.31 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…1e8abacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 487.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +13.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 102.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.