South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d18c3a3169d266c3d23cfa649194857ae006181363e3098df2ef70c95d815bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 1,919$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.75 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 40c | 1,658$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.72 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 1,524$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.68 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 46c | 1,371$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.94 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 1,224$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.51 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 65c | 664.69$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 59c | 398.81$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…7207backed Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 60c | 256.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 46c | 238$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 64c | 202.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 36c | 198.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 181.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 36c | 179.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 102.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 78.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 70.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 64.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed No | 46c | 54.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…4175backed Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked No | 37c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 28c | 37.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 31c | 37.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 60c | 31.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 35c | 29.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 63c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-02-13?No won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-02-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.