Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d331e636f17df30a53c361f20e4ba5de693da1b8ab138fac8939285723030e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 61c | 1,633$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,518$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 64c | 1,203$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.54 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 819.74$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…8e35backed Over | 45c | 773.33$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 55c | 349.58$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Over | 45c | 280.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 77c | 258.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…92c1backed Over | 23c | 212.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 54c | 181.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 124.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 48c | 120.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 114.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Over | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 83.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 32c | 76.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 68c | 76.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 44c | 61.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 39c | 51.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked Under | 63c | 46.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 57c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 33.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 37c | 32.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 40c | 31.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 68c | 26.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 59c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Hertha BSC O/U 0.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.