Bundesliga · resolved market
Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa602a083ac3f818990bcb322d12e8658c4c7f96f58a36daaf7921fb62279c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 17c | 5,089$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.61 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 80c | 4,518$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.74 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 30c | 4,344$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.38 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 4,039$2,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 26c | 822$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 63c | 358.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 22c | 240$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 13c | 186.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 14c | 139.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 22c | 120.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 72c | 101.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 94.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 15c | 70.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 61.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 48.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Under | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 73c | 44.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…f591backed Over | 50c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…8949backed Under | 71c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 5.5this page
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Hertha BSC O/U 0.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hertha BSC vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.