CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Universe (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4645d0e6e7cc411d9fe48499fb4723cfd5a9ff0f46453bbb2c9445f54a7dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, Universe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4ad…b1bebacked Universe | 3c | 3,635$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…cecebacked Universe | 17c | 1,877$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…a03abacked Universe | 20c | 1,480$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…e896backed Universe | 21c | 1,342$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…df9abacked Universe | 20c | 1,150$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked illwill | 77c | 1,134$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.17 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Universe | 21c | 1,096$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…612ebacked Universe | 21c | 1,068$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…9eaebacked Universe | 21c | 1,037$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…66aebacked illwill | 80c | 1,030$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4f…9339backed Universe | 21c | 1,025$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…9b96backed Universe | 20c | 959$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…2284backed illwill | 79c | 935$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…afd9backed illwill | 80c | 920$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…85cebacked Universe | 19c | 900$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…fdb2backed illwill | 79c | 891$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e61ebacked Universe | 19c | 890$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…771dbacked illwill | 79c | 835$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…bbccbacked illwill | 79c | 802.47$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…44bdbacked illwill | 79c | 556$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…fb58backed illwill | 80c | 554$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b7…63bbbacked illwill | 79c | 507$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Universe | 24c | 481.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…110cbacked illwill | 79c | 481$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Universe | 3c | 470.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…897dbacked illwill | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b12…c3c1backed illwill | 80c | 405$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…5510backed illwill | 79c | 250.63$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Universe | 5c | 249.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d2…2e42backed illwill | 80c | 230$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Universe | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Universe | 23c | 167.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Universe | 19c | 146.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…f2a3backed illwill | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…f4ebbacked illwill | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed illwill | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…b735backed illwill | 77c | 105.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…3a3bbacked Universe | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Universe | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Universe | 18c | 79.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 217 | 23%50 W · 167 L | -35.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Universe | 23c | 65.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…f8bfbacked illwill | 60c | 56.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Universe | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed illwill | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed illwill | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed illwill | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked illwill | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…3fe4backed illwill | 80c | 18.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.