Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4bf90ed7f209c86ab4e6a6701c801d2ea9fca0673dccb840e7866434457e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 21c | 523$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 144.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 141.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 131.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 95.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 26c | 78.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…52c8backed No | 78c | 65.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 18c | 64.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 59.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 23c | 53.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 53.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 29c | 52.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 52.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 22c | 49.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 26c | 44.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 39.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 27c | 37.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 79c | 29.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 79c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.