Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa60b77367537d36a550be9e91b37c9f1ce14caaebe48ab93a7f30ae610b0b81f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 52c | 363.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 355.36$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 353.74$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 56c | 321.66$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 49c | 308.35$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 74c | 252$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 55c | 216.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 18c | 205.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 21c | 174$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 151.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 49c | 142.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 141.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 57c | 138.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 51c | 122.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 63c | 111.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 95.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 52c | 95.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 24c | 92.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 24c | 91.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 79.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 76.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 56c | 74.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 33c | 72.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 42c | 72.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 72.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 28c | 71.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 66c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 49c | 50.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 67c | 46.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…0379backed No | 45c | 45.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 39.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 72c | 38.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 60c | 37.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 29.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 35c | 28.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…2a52backed Yes | 71c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 49c | 24.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 66c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.