MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d5af26dc575b8291335050ccec0914786004863a3ef84392aaffb40152a680b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Under | 0c | 38,509$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Under | 47c | 12,581$5,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,913.18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 53c | 12,581$6,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,913.18 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 49c | 10,292$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 10,000$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 48c | 5,457$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.94 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,177$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.34 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 3,008$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.96 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 47c | 1,374$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.4 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 54c | 1,289$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.07 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 47c | 1,065$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.55 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 472.25$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Under | 48c | 418$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 53c | 317.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.27 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 52c | 213.16$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 62c | 169$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 36c | 145.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 113.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 51c | 48.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Brewers vs. CubsCubs won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.