TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Daxak Team vs avice Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
avice Teamof Daxak Team, avice Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked avice Team57c1,947$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.0250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Daxak Team6c499.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3265625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Daxak Team36c480.35$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17547650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked avice Team52c434.08$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3615957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e91…c6febacked Daxak Team48c355.63$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Daxak Team42c282.84$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.451,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Daxak Team9c252.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7989238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed Daxak Team44c246.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.553943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Daxak Team45c123.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6618550.8%94 W · 91 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Daxak Team37c120.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Daxak Team30c73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.111936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4462…7807backed Daxak Team39c62.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3212650.8%64 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb595…4b77backed Daxak Team44c61.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Daxak Team42c56.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9712559.2%74 W · 51 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Daxak Team27c52.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2818733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Daxak Team41c52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.334041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…2e8ebacked avice Team70c49.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.915450%27 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdce3…7537backed Daxak Team50c49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Daxak Team42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712353.7%66 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked avice Team77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6958746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked avice Team77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7544049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.