Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nava (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d85e249fcec262b43aa8af748459ff074948e9f3b126ea7a14b8255935d40b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navaof Shelton, Nava
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Shelton | 56c | 4,200$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.99 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nava | 44c | 2,397$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.31 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nava | 48c | 1,763$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.69 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nava | 45c | 495.02$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.46 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Shelton | 50c | 407.4$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Nava | 44c | 390.54$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Shelton | 60c | 274.09$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Shelton | 58c | 251.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nava | 50c | 242.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Shelton | 47c | 213.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 415 | 44.3%184 W · 231 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Nava | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…c639backed Nava | 55c | 180.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Nava | 45c | 142.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Shelton | 51c | 138.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Nava | 39c | 107$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Nava | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Shelton | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…ed83backed Nava | 44c | 90.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Shelton | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Shelton | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Shelton | 62c | 63.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…ca41backed Shelton | 55c | 60.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.9wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nava | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Nava | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Shelton | 45c | 56.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Nava | 55c | 54.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Shelton | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Shelton | 48c | 43.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Shelton | 53c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 482 | 42.5%205 W · 277 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Shelton | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Shelton | 30c | 40.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Shelton | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Shelton | 50c | 35.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Shelton | 44c | 31.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Shelton | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Nava | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nava (+1.5)this page
- BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Emilio Nava vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Nava vs. Shelton: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nava vs SheltonShelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.