Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d895ff1a2d698433b1a754f3d910a7d54b57b78359240f65b11657909434e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7be…570cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,518$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.56 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 885.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 59c | 767.23$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.23 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 74c | 269.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed No | 73c | 238.82$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…45b5backed Yes | 36c | 193$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 191.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 13c | 178.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed No | 64c | 143$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 36c | 141.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 31c | 92.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 90.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked No | 53c | 82.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 45c | 57.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…5df6backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…8cf4backed No | 65c | 32.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732c…a3c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.