Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8e6e6c1cf92e913b832c9bc1823d5183f8ea0cd3230d9cbce684c7d0f37d6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 13c | 422.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 362.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 10c | 309.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 225$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 22c | 212$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 74c | 205.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 170.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 19c | 166$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 152.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 119.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 114.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 113.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 68c | 92.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 87.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 72.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 53c | 53.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 53.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 48.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 46.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 46.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 27c | 45.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 44.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 43.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 39.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…ac5dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 38.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 33.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.