Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d8c9acb957a394fcf1f6a59d2e37f3aee8d0819cec66ade6bd00f00cd746ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 75c | 628.83$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 585.77$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 585.53$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 548.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.52 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 34c | 391.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.37 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 55c | 368.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked Yes | 71c | 284.18$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 64c | 271.2$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.26 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed Yes | 50c | 258.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 190.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 58c | 172.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 54c | 170.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 49c | 158.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 157.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 155.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 146.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 139.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 133.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 131.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 126.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 125.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 34c | 83.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 79.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 56c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 34c | 70.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 32c | 70.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 26c | 69.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 60c | 68.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 63.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 63.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 61.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 33c | 61.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 69c | 60.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 53.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 52.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 47.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 44.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 44.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 39.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 77c | 39.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 36.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 33.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 32.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 31.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 43c | 28.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 27.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 55c | 25.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 55c | 25.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 74c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 54c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 62c | 17.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 67c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.