TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,098 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox41c12,012$4,908 inLost-$4,908.0411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies51c6,021$3,071 inWon+$2,950.3310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies64c4,619$2,954 inWon+$1,665.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Philadelphia Phillies65c2,836$1,839 inWon+$997.6124551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox45c2,386$1,080 inLost-$1,079.68,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox34c1,200$408 inLost-$4085,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Philadelphia Phillies52c1,053$548 inWon+$505.4491252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Philadelphia Phillies67c710.68$478 inWon+$232.691,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies50c635$318 inWon+$317.256,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Phillies51c553.62$280 inWon+$273.221,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Chicago White Sox66c513.56$339 inLost-$338.9570546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox40c502.52$203 inLost-$203.383,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Philadelphia Phillies51c457.96$234 inWon+$224.497050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Philadelphia Phillies51c305.45$156 inWon+$149.6732450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies51c283.82$145 inWon+$138.472,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Phillies65c215.26$140 inWon+$75.341,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…e1d4backed Chicago White Sox22c197.64$43 inLost-$43.4880%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox41c171.44$70 inLost-$69.68,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies50c155.72$78 inWon+$77.861,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Philadelphia Phillies66c133$88 inWon+$45.2214858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies33c83.43$27 inWon+$56.151,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies52c63.2$33 inWon+$30.342,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies52c57$30 inWon+$27.361,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.5541249.5%204 W · 208 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago White Sox35c51.05$18 inLost-$17.874,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Philadelphia Phillies51c32.23$16 inWon+$15.921,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Philadelphia Phillies50c31.14$16 inWon+$15.5725357.3%145 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Philadelphia Phillies52c30.38$16 inWon+$14.5866056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Philadelphia Phillies52c30.38$16 inWon+$14.581,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies50c29.1$15 inWon+$14.551,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe046…9bc6backed Philadelphia Phillies52c24.31$13 inWon+$11.6711158.6%65 W · 46 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Philadelphia Phillies60c21.35$13 inWon+$8.561,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…8b7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies67c16.09$11 inWon+$5.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick73cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.