MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd088bfd6633ddc5067679bfa16ede1bc05168c49c34397e03aecfbce6a8f36aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $324,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $330,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 38c | 293,180$112,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,056.42 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 62c | 180,000$110,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,200 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 63c | 45,896$28,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,981.37 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 62c | 35,000$21,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,450 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 62c | 22,565$14,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,556.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 62c | 5,727$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 63c | 5,680$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.6 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Over | 63c | 3,216$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 1,893$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 37c | 1,380$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 62c | 1,315$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 61c | 1,291$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.49 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 62c | 1,246$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.62 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 39c | 735.72$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 62c | 650.68$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.35 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 62c | 480$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 37c | 447$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 434.52$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 62c | 302$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 61c | 196.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Under | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 38c | 133.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…c92dbacked Over | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 64c | 101.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 62c | 101.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 78c | 69.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 62c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…187abacked Under | 38c | 56.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 64c | 35.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Under | 37c | 34.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…d2bfbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…3617backed Over | 63c | 31.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 63c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed Over | 63c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Over | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 63c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.