Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db172e10a5d19e65825a754bbad71cb96942ef0cfb195f0375143cdbf8d993f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trungellitiof Darderi, Trungelliti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Darderi | 44c | 957.29$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.58 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Trungelliti | 39c | 941.08$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.3 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Darderi | 61c | 800.8$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.29 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Trungelliti | 52c | 384.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Trungelliti | 63c | 312.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Trungelliti | 64c | 305.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Trungelliti | 56c | 300.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Darderi | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Darderi | 58c | 167$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…07f5backed Darderi | 59c | 132.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Trungelliti | 42c | 80.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Trungelliti | 40c | 71.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Darderi | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Trungelliti | 42c | 64.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Darderi | 55c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)this page
- Darderi vs. Trungelliti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Marco TrungellitiMarco Trungelliti won
- Luciano Darderi vs. Marco Trungelliti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs TrungellitiTrungelliti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.