Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dc097c578993a3fe978efea2901022c63b671a86b58149c22f69df04625a69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,583$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 68c | 598.74$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 43c | 434.1$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 402.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 30c | 374.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 15c | 278.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 181.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 127.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 11c | 114.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 110.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 44c | 109.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 33c | 94.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 89.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 28c | 87.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…9406backed No | 75c | 84.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 81.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 77.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 65c | 73.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…567ebacked No | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 22c | 69.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 73c | 60.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 64c | 53.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 52.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 55c | 49.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 37.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 36.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 74c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 32c | 34.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…9438backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fb…351abacked No | 71c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.