MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd01b3c2923601fb90e65a295399c904e33ffb356953e979e42b184790e5fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals | 48c | 42,308$20,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,307.82 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Reds | 52c | 32,000$16,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,360 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Reds | 51c | 5,555$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,721.94 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Reds | 49c | 3,975$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.63 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Reds | 50c | 3,686$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.04 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cardinals | 51c | 3,199$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.51 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Cardinals | 14c | 3,110$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.24 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…0d4ebacked Reds | 48c | 2,942$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Reds | 52c | 2,788$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.44 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Reds | 51c | 2,434$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.42 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Reds | 52c | 2,106$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.06 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 72c | 1,927$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 13c | 1,488$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 47c | 1,452$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.73 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 48c | 1,430$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 40c | 1,245$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.22 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Cardinals | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Reds | 45c | 1,000$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.85 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals | 52c | 855.38$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cardinals | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 52c | 761.94$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Reds | 48c | 693.05$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.85 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Reds | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cardinals | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cardinals | 48c | 554.07$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.91 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Cardinals | 12c | 500.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Reds | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Cardinals | 50c | 498.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Cardinals | 53c | 473.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Reds | 50c | 383.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.05 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Cardinals | 40c | 301.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Reds | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 52c | 286.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Reds | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Reds | 75c | 269$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Reds | 57c | 249.87$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 340 | 51.2%174 W · 166 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Cardinals | 50c | 203.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cardinals | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Reds | 52c | 192.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Reds | 53c | 186.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Cardinals | 49c | 156.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Reds | 51c | 137.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds | 56c | 132.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Cardinals | 49c | 131.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Reds | 45c | 129.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Cardinals | 49c | 125.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…77c9backed Cardinals | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 46c | 108.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Cardinals | 19c | 101.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Cardinals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Reds | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…ca4abacked Reds | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cardinals | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Cardinals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Reds | 49c | 89.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Cardinals | 44c | 85.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…47f3backed Reds | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…ac3abacked Cardinals | 50c | 72.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…68c9backed Reds | 53c | 68.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…f95bbacked Cardinals | 49c | 66.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Cardinals | 55c | 62.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Reds | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked Reds | 52c | 53.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Reds | 53c | 53.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 52.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Cardinals | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…4eb4backed Reds | 48c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cardinals | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Reds | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…41dcbacked Reds | 52c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Reds | 51c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…3237backed Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.