Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8de2ddbf5fe74bcc5f1e6a0664b3c39589898a9b07508cd6699c2f17b02ad6e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,052 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bdd…23dcbacked Over | 57c | 10,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.98 | 171 | 63.2%108 W · 63 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…e7c0backed Under | 43c | 3,488$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Under | 43c | 3,304$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,883.3 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Over | 57c | 2,031$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.11 | 219 | 54.3%119 W · 100 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Under | 43c | 1,905$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.65 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 43c | 1,395$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.35 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Under | 44c | 1,072$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.35 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Under | 43c | 499.91$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.95 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 42c | 299.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.4 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Under | 43c | 218.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…5e13backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ca…731bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Under | 42c | 41.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?G2 Esports won
- First Blood in Game 3?BNK FEARX won
- Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: BFX (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group AG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.