Champions League · resolved market
Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfcce7f3514096505c314c4c75178994367ba21235f748e02c8a7e2ec54bddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 34c | 10,294$3,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,748.55 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 66c | 8,882$5,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,838.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 65cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.98 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed No | 40c | 1,468$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 60c | 1,468$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…4a1fbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…1134backed Yes | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 36c | 939.53$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 32c | 288$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 67c | 244.32$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 67c | 240.67$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…b949backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…7603backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55e…77d2backed No | 67c | 147.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fa…2431backed Yes | 36c | 147.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…5ab3backed Yes | 36c | 136.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…4711backed Yes | 36c | 136.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…f99bbacked No | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked No | 64c | 35.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…8358backed No | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…1becbacked No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…dad1backed No | 77c | 13.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Celtic?No won
- Will the match between Celtic and RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.