Champions League · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Celtic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41f218c113d5802aa5e998702265a96698257c9d3a63d25b8280e8597f33abdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 61c | 3,380$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.64 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 60c | 3,100$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a3…9b79backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 40c | 784.92$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.41 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 52c | 372.16$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 48c | 371.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…699bbacked Yes | 40c | 315.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 60c | 292.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 42c | 274.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…88e7backed Yes | 38c | 267.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…cd10backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…431dbacked Yes | 41c | 239.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 40c | 212.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…a0b7backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…2885backed Yes | 40c | 194.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 37c | 194.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…bb00backed Yes | 41c | 181.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 43c | 165.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 41c | 146.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f5…07f1backed Yes | 69c | 144.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 38c | 135.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 71c | 132.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 39c | 126.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…29aebacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 63c | 103.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 42c | 80.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…23cebacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249d…f0b9backed Yes | 40c | 76.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Yes | 38c | 73.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…1daabacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…5163backed Yes | 42c | 47.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…e7f1backed Yes | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c637backed No | 62c | 32.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…4cb1backed Yes | 40c | 25.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…ab13backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked No | 62c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Celtic?this page
- Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will the match between Celtic and RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.