TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf25d…1134

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NHL, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 63 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1090%9 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.41per pick49cpaid+99.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+100%+$75
Blues vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$520
Blackhawks vs. Lightningbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$1,824.99
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$904Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$425.6
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,425
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$594
Jets vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$1,199.96
Senators vs. Maple Leafsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+150%+$899.98
Capitals vs. Canadiensbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+87.3%+$676.74
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$426.57
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+112.8%+$46.74
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$66
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,088Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$611.98
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$756
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$237.29
Will Arsenal beat Inter Milan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+51.5%+$12.24
Will Aston Villa beat Club Brugge?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$368.55
Will Celtic beat RB Leipzig?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST+194.1%+$659.99
Will Liverpool beat Bayer Leverkusen?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$460
Will Real Madrid beat AC Milan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2024, EST-100%-$543.98
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$155
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$701.46
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.55
Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$920
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,344Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,344
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,010Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$990
Will West Ham win on 2025-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+100%+$500
Will Southampton win on 2024-11-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT+194.1%+$417.45
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Pacersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$260
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$1,359.99
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,452Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$409.63
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.88
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$420.75
Heat vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+58.7%+$5.98
Nets vs. Magicbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.22
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,961Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,961.13
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,305Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,305
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,218Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$1,681.99
Nationals vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.38
Brewers vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,833
Pirates vs. Cubsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$1,169.98
All 6 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+223.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$558
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$962
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$228.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.