Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51056a6d3f120811ecf772bdedbd16aec9da447e253869748c7146e6f4349c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 18c | 5,689$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.98 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 78c | 5,220$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.47 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 23c | 4,547$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.67 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 22c | 2,000$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.91 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 22c | 1,884$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.47 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8d…4b45backed Yes | 79c | 1,386$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…5529backed Yes | 78c | 1,131$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…1134backed No | 21c | 1,130$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 22c | 1,001$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed No | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 65c | 789.8$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.43 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 22c | 764.91$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…8b83backed Yes | 79c | 647.91$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 25c | 422.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…40b6backed Yes | 79c | 352$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…9164backed Yes | 79c | 292.85$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c2…553abacked Yes | 78c | 203.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…1d13backed Yes | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed No | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…6e31backed Yes | 78c | 134.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a606backed Yes | 78c | 128.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e33…c9f1backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…33c0backed Yes | 79c | 124.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 18c | 115.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…6fe5backed Yes | 78c | 100.01$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f397backed No | 21c | 81.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 19c | 78.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…dad6backed Yes | 78c | 75.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…4970backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…f685backed Yes | 78c | 58.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…a14cbacked Yes | 79c | 45.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6953…2c26backed Yes | 74c | 40.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e8…2688backed Yes | 77c | 39.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…de9dbacked Yes | 78c | 36.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…c516backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…6809backed Yes | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…ca22backed Yes | 78c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…3468backed Yes | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…34aabacked Yes | 78c | 30.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Yes | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…f738backed Yes | 78c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…6987backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5872…24debacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…f39ebacked Yes | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…36a7backed Yes | 78c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5eb…d14fbacked Yes | 78c | 20.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…658dbacked Yes | 78c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 78c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…78f4backed Yes | 78c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…c5abbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…5bd5backed Yes | 78c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…e595backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?this page
- Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.