Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0a5c1092d2335102fa62b0166a0cfc120e04c6decfe8348f0b31e7753d13b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed No | 3c | 422.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…a8e0backed No | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 6c | 225.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 46c | 168.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 166.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 165.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 18c | 163.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 56c | 128.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 64c | 96.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 93.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 62.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 67c | 59.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 57.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 59c | 55.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 49.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 48.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed No | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…84bcbacked Yes | 42c | 37.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 40c | 34.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 37c | 27.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…1d7abacked No | 61c | 24.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.