Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon 2024: Medvedev vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e1c5a7c0c6b35065849d8bbfa291bf2f8c973b9a64d01d5ca04791cb4f45f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Medvedev, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Medvedev | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Alcaraz | 73c | 8,153$5,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Alcaraz | 73c | 1,171$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Alcaraz | 80c | 1,014$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Alcaraz | 73c | 999.98$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Medvedev | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…b84bbacked Medvedev | 27c | 364.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Alcaraz | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f2…b488backed Medvedev | 24c | 264.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3b…d4c6backed Medvedev | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f2…f52cbacked Alcaraz | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…c352backed Medvedev | 27c | 185.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Medvedev | 27c | 155.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…64a3backed Medvedev | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…ee8fbacked Alcaraz | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Alcaraz | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…1a07backed Alcaraz | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.