NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e203e17acb9504f44a76c96cd4e6c1841aa0ca446fd7d43e6589984dbf2f9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 61c | 1,260$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.57 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 922.18$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.11 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Over | 49c | 822.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf373…dc57backed Under | 39c | 760$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Over | 61c | 760$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 60c | 654.76$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.67 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 548.92$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 59c | 364$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 65c | 350$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 59c | 217$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…9ea6backed Under | 39c | 167$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 166.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…fb9abacked Over | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…8dc4backed Under | 39c | 149$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Over | 61c | 139$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Ducks vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.