NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x768afdd5d33c377595537b79695b43bd2dd5ed2b88930134ab2be87d7bd5a24e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 46c | 43,860$20,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,175.52 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 54c | 30,140$16,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,864.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Over | 54c | 27,000$14,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,420 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 52c | 26,818$14,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,782.35 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Over | 55c | 15,060$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,809.78 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 45c | 13,556$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100.05 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 10,245$4,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,711.62 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 9,486$4,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,459.59 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 48c | 7,347$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.13 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3700…3c06backed Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1be4…47c3backed Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Over | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…ab89backed Over | 50c | 5,600$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17b…d0a7backed Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…8478backed Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Over | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85c…54b5backed Over | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…3fd2backed Under | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…5ba7backed Over | 50c | 5,600$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 54c | 5,500$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 47c | 4,300$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 3,278$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 2,970$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.6 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 47c | 2,664$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.59 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 47c | 1,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 1,433$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.02 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…0588backed Under | 51c | 815.69$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 800.17$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.06 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 675.39$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.45 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…447cbacked Under | 47c | 659.57$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 47c | 625$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.75 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 46c | 479.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 429$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 429$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 361$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 51c | 203.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Under | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb4…ab8dbacked Over | 52c | 87.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…11e2backed Under | 51c | 84.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…cbccbacked Under | 46c | 81.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 75.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 51c | 37.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda6…70aabacked Under | 51c | 36.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…9142backed Over | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…7dfebacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…7b4fbacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 54c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Ducks vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.