Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4a30f964e5dd76a75ea56aa02eb61c35ffa91069b344d96b5825ee31c32bb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 556.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.76 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Under | 58c | 510.68$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Under | 36c | 263.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Under | 62c | 196.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 23c | 65.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 36c | 65.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 63.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cb…f1d3backed Over | 70c | 54.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Over | 56c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 78c | 17.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…0728backed Over | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.